October 29, 2009

Steve Megargee
Rivals.com College Football

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This season, it probably will cause them to hang their heads.

One year after the ACC sent a record 10 teams to bowl games, the league might send only half as many teams to the postseason.

Georgia Tech already is bowl-eligible. Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College are one win away, and should get there. But the latest Rivals.com bowl projections have only Clemson and Florida State joining that group. Under that scenario, the ACC wouldn't have enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill its tie-ins with the Emerald and EagleBank bowls.

Here's a rundown of the bowl prospects for every team in the ACC other than Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College. Our analysis reveals that three ACC teams could spend the holiday season regretting some scheduling choices.

Clemson (4-3 overall, 3-2 in the ACC): The Tigers have bounced back from a rough start with back-to-back victories over Wake Forest and Miami. Clemson controls its destiny in the Atlantic Division race and needs two more wins to become bowl eligible. That shouldn't be a problem for a team that ought to be favored in its next four games (home games with Coastal Carolina, Florida State and Virginia plus a trip to North Carolina State) before ending the season at South Carolina. Then again, Clemson rarely makes anything easy on itself.

Duke (4-3, 2-1): Duke has won two in a row and is as hot as any team in the ACC other than Georgia Tech and Clemson. The problem is that Duke needs seven wins - not six - to become bowl eligible. Duke's 49-14 rout of North Carolina Central doesn't count toward bowl eligibility because North Carolina Central is still making the transition to FCS membership from Division II. That means Duke must go 3-2 during a five-game stretch that includes trips to Virginia, North Carolina and Miami plus home games with Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. Don't be surprised if a season-opening loss to defending FCS champion Richmond ends up keeping the Blue Devils out of a bowl.

Florida State (3-4, 1-3): Although Florida State currently has a losing record, the Seminoles have a decent shot at earning their NCAA-leading 28th consecutive bowl bid. The Seminoles are favored to beat visiting North Carolina State this week and ought to beat Maryland at home on Nov. 21. If the Seminoles sweep those two contests, they would have to win just one of their remaining three road games against Clemson, Wake Forest and Florida. A 6-6 finish looks likely.

Maryland (2-6, 1-3): The bad news for Maryland is that it must win all four of its remaining games to have any shot at a bowl. The worse news is that the Terps likely will be underdogs in each of those games - Nov. 7 at North Carolina State, Nov. 14 vs. Virginia Tech, Nov. 21 at Florida State and Nov. 28 vs. Boston College.

North Carolina (4-3, 0-3): North Carolina looked like a shoo-in for a bowl after starting 3-0, but the Tar Heels have dropped three of four since. North Carolina needs to go at least 7-5 to earn a postseason invitation because it can count only one of its two wins over FCS programs (The Citadel and Georgia Southern) toward bowl eligibility. That means the Tar Heels must win at least three more games. North Carolina's remaining games are visits from Duke and Miami along with trips to Virginia Tech, Boston College and North Carolina State.

N.C. State (3-4, 0-3): The Wolfpack capped a three-game winning streak with a thrilling come-from-behind victory over Pittsburgh on Sept. 26, but they've lost three consecutive games since. North Carolina State must go at least 7-5 to earn a bowl bid because two of its wins came against FCS programs Murray State and Gardner-Webb. The Wolfpack still must travel to Florida State and Virginia Tech and play host to Maryland, Clemson and North Carolina.

Virginia (3-4, 2-1): The Cavaliers have done a nice job of turning things around after losing their first three games, but they will need to pull off at least one upset to get to 6-6. Virginia can get back to .500 by beating Duke at home Saturday, but the Cavaliers will have their hands full in their last four games. Virginia travels to Miami, plays host to Boston College and heads to Clemson before ending the regular season with a visit from Virginia Tech.

Wake Forest (4-4, 2-2): A loss to Navy last week put the Demon Deacons' bowl hopes in serious jeopardy. It's tough to imagine Wake Forest beating Miami at home Saturday or winning at Georgia Tech next week. If those games go as expected, the Demon Deacons will have to continue their recent mastery over Florida State and win at Duke in their regular-season finale to get to 6-6.

MATCHUP OF THE WEEK: North Carolina State QB Russell Wilson vs. Florida State pass defense. If Florida State QB Christian Ponder could throw for 395 yards against a North Carolina pass defense that was ranked first in the nation, you have to assume he's going to have a field day against the Wolfpack's porous secondary. North Carolina State's best chance of winning is for Wilson to turn this game into a shootout. Wilson has thrown an equal number of interceptions (five) and touchdown passes during North Carolina State's three-game losing streak, but Florida State's secondary just might cure whatever has ailed him recently. Florida State ranks last in the ACC and 109th in the nation in pass efficiency defense.

PLAYER ON THE SPOT: North Carolina QB T.J. Yates. Although Yates is playing on an offense that lacks experienced receivers, he hasn't come close to living up to the promise he showed last season while throwing to NFL draft picks Hakeem Nicks, Brooks Foster and Brandon Tate. Yates has thrown eight interceptions and only seven touchdown passes this season. He has thrown just one touchdown pass in his past three games and went 12-of-25 for 64 yards last week as North Carolina squandered an 18-point lead in a 30-27 loss to Florida State. North Carolina won't earn a bowl bid unless Yates improves his production, but he could be in for a long night Thursday against a Virginia Tech team that has allowed only five touchdown passes all season.

NUMBERS GAME: The season isn't even two-thirds of the way over, but Duke already has four wide receivers with at least 25 catches this season for the first time in school history. Not even the Duke teams of the Steve Spurrier era had as many as four wide receivers with at least 25 catches. The Duke quartet: Austin Kelly (39 catches, 410 yards), Donovan Varner (35-547), Conner Vernon (31-459) and Johnny Williams (26-337).

THEY SAID IT:

"Last year, they had a dude coming to block me, but he'd come straight up the field and try to catch me at an angle. This year, they had everybody arching out and trying to come down on me. There were a lot of illegal chops coming at me, some of everything. There's nothing we can do about it." - Virginia Tech FS Kam Chancellor, to The (Norfolk) Virginian-Pilot about Georgia Tech's blocking schemes Oct. 17 in a 28-23 victory over the Hokies

"That's a joke. Put the tape on and watch. ... They got out-schemed. So it's illegal to out-scheme them, I guess." - Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson, responding to the Hokies' charges, in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Johnson and Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer had a conversation Tuesday to hash out their opinions on the matter

"I would only say that Virginia Tech, just as every team on that weekend, submitted plays for my review. Out of those plays, there are a few the officials missed, a few that were the right call and a few that were judgment calls somewhere in the middle." - ACC coordinator of football officials Doug Rhoads, to The Virginian-Pilot, about claims by Virginia Tech coaches that the league had agreed Georgia Tech had gotten away with a number of illegal blocks in the victory over the Hokies. The Virginian-Pilot reported that Hokies secondary coach Torrian Gray had said the league indicated there were four illegal blocks on Chancellor alone

"I just go out there and play. The main thing that's important to me is winning. It's like Coach [Dabo] Swinney says, team success will always be good for individual success. ... It's just never been about individual goals for me. I just try to help our team win. Stats will take care of themselves." - Clemson RB C.J. Spiller, to TigerIllustrated.com about his Heisman candidacy. Spiller leads the nation with 207.9 all-purpose yards per game

"You hate it for the young man just because everything should be performance-based and not preseason-based. He's playing as well as anybody out there. Hey, he just has to keep proving them wrong." - Florida State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, to the Tallahassee (Fla.) Democrat about QB Christian Ponder's omission from the list of the 15 semifinalists for the Davey O'Brien Award that goes to the nation's top quarterback. Ponder has thrown 12 touchdown passes with only one interception and ranks fourth in the nation in total offense (330.4 yards per game)

"Everybody is down. You can see it in their eyes. This is not something we expected to happen." - Miami QB Jacory Harris, to The Palm Beach (Fla.) Post after the Hurricanes' 40-37 overtime loss to Clemson, which prevented the Hurricanes from controlling their destiny in the Coastal Division race

"The timing is tough. As to what was on their minds, I don't know. Who can figure out what is in the minds of 19- or 20-year-olds sometimes." - Boston College coach Frank Spaziani, discussing the Wednesday announcement that reserve QB Justin Tuggle and reserve RB Josh Haden were transferring. Tuggle started the Eagles' first two games this season, while Haden arrived at Boston College as the Eagles' top recruit in the 2008 signing class

ETC.: Miami LB Sean Spence has a knee injury that will prevent him from playing Saturday at Wake Forest. ... Boston College senior WR Rich Gunnell compiled a career-high 179 receiving yards in a 20-16 loss to Notre Dame, which increased his career total to 2,018. He is 370 yards away from the school record set by Pete Mitchell, a Boston College tight end from 1991-94. ... Spiller's 90-yard touchdown Saturday against Miami marked the sixth time in his career that he has scored on a kickoff return, which ties the NCAA FBS record held by USC's Anthony Davis (1972-74) and Tulsa's Ashlan Davis (2004-05). ... Ten North Carolina State players have suffered season-ending injuries: TE Mario Carter (knee), LB Ryan Cheek (hip), OL Denzelle Good (shoulder), LB Nate Irving (leg), FB Colby Jackson (knee), QB Everett Proctor (shoulder), DE Jeff Rieskamp (sports hernia), CB Rashard Smith (ankle), S Javon Walker (knee) and RB James Washington (knee). ... Virginia will be playing its 1,200th game in school history Saturday when it plays host to Duke. ... Clemson SS DeAndre McDaniel picked off two passes against Miami last week to give him seven this season, tying UCLA's Rahim Moore for the NCAA lead. ... Florida State's Ponder has thrown 237 consecutive passes without an interception, which puts him 33 away from the school record set by Drew Weatherford in 2007. ... Florida State DT Jeremy Mincey assisted on one tackle against North Carolina last week in his first action of the season. Mincey decided not to redshirt despite missing the Seminoles' first six games of the season with an injured left knee. "Every day I thought about it," Mincey told Warchant.com. "What should I do? I just kept praying." ... Duke's wins over North Carolina State and Maryland give the Blue Devils back-to-back ACC victories for the first time since 1994, when they defeated Clemson and Wake Forest. That also marks the last season Duke earned a bowl bid; it lost 34-21 to Wisconsin in the Hall of Fame Bowl. ... The ACC has signed a four-year contract extension with the Chick-fil-A Bowl that will run through the 2013 season.

Steve Megargee is a national writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at smegargee@rivals.com.